Global Weather Outlook 2025: La Niña’s Potential Return Amid Record-Breaking Temperatures
Current Global Weather Patterns
After maintaining neutral conditions since March 2025, global weather patterns are showing signs of change as La Niña conditions may emerge in the coming months, with potential onset in September 2025.
According to the World Meteorological Organization’s forecasts, there is a 55% probability of sea surface temperatures cooling to La Niña levels during September-November 2025, with this likelihood increasing to about 60% for October-December 2025.
Temperature Predictions and Records
The WMO report indicates that global mean near-surface temperatures between 2025 and 2029 are predicted to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. There’s an 80% chance that at least one year in this period will surpass 2024’s record-breaking temperatures, and an 86% probability of at least one year exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Regional Weather Patterns
The multi-model ensemble forecast shows strong signals for above-normal surface temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere, with high model agreement. Southern North America, western Europe, northwest Africa, northern Asia, eastern Asia, and the Arctic Circle are all expected to experience above-normal conditions.
Precipitation patterns for the period show interesting regional variations, with wetter than average conditions expected in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while the Amazon region is predicted to experience drier than average conditions.
Climate Impact and Significance
These seasonal forecasts represent crucial climate intelligence tools, translating into significant economic savings across sectors like agriculture, energy, health, and transport. According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, these predictions have been instrumental in saving thousands of lives by guiding preparedness and response actions.
Experts note that about 90% of excess heat from global warming is stored in the ocean, making ocean heat content a critical climate change indicator. While La Niña and El Niño patterns significantly influence our climate through ocean surface temperatures and weather patterns, human-induced climate change continues to drive increasing global temperatures and extreme weather events.
